Macau chief executive Ho Iat Seng says he won’t seek reelection

As recently as July, local media reported that, come October, Ho would run for a second five-year term for Macau chief executive. But even then rumours swirled about his future after Ho took a month-long leave of absence.

He did not confirm or deny the speculation until 21 August, when he issued this statement on the Macau government website: “Due to the fact that my health has not been fully restored, for the sake of Macau’s long-term development… I have decided not to participate in the election for the sixth-term chief executive.”

Ho expressed “profound feelings for Macau” and said he had “done my utmost for Macau’s development”.

One analyst says a change in leadership should not affect Macau’s gaming industry.

Leader in a crisis

Ho took over as Macau chief executive at a turbulent time in the city’s history. It was December 2019, just before the first coronavirus case was recorded in the Chinese gaming hub.

The decline was swift and severe. The following February, gross gaming revenue (GGR) toppled 88%. In March 2020, it was down 79.7%. April marked a new low, as GGR tumbled a record 97%, to MOP754m (£72.5m/€85.5m/$95m).

For three years, the special administrative region (SAR) struggled through intermittent shutdowns. It did not fully reopen its borders until January 2023.

But the pandemic hastened efforts to diversify the local economy and reduce its reliance on gaming. As a condition of their new 10-year concessions, the city’s casino operators agreed to invest a collective MOP125m in new development. Of that, 90% has been earmarked for non-gaming attractions, such as spas, waterparks and arts and cultural exhibits.

As Ho stated, he and the local government “planned to promote Macao’s diversified development, strove to build a new pattern of Macao’s development and reshaped Macao’s new competitive advantages under the concept of ‘unity and efforts, change and innovation’.”

Successor will likely hail from inside government

In a 21 August note, Seaport analyst Vitaly Umansky said Ho’s announcement was “not surprising” given his recent extended leave.

“At this stage, there is no clear obvious candidate for the job,” the analyst wrote. “But we expect the eventual chief executive to come from inside the government administration.”

Not surprisingly, the successful candidate “will be fully vetted and approved by the Chinese government,” he continued. That person will “have an understanding of the importance of the gaming and hospitality industry to the economic well-being and future development of Macau.”

However, Umansky wrote, “there should be no material impact on the gaming industry.”

According to Seaport’s most recent forecast, GGR is expected to grow to MOP231bn in 2024, up 26% year-on-year.

“Macau remains a long-term secular growth story,” Umansky wrote.